Jason (jcreed) wrote,
Jason
jcreed

You know that class of games exemplified by guess the number closest to 2/3s of the average of all other players' guesses, where induction tells you that a perfect unboundedly-rational agent that assumes all other players behave the same way would optimally choose 0, but that's never the 'right' answer in practice with real humans?

I wonder what happens differently if you don't have an obvious fixedpoint, but instead the game is something like "guess closest to 1 bigger than the average of everyone's guess" or maybe "guess closest to 1 bigger than the average of everyone's guess, mod 100". The latter kind of doesn't have any clear strategy, since it's symmetric up to adding n to everybody's answer mod 100. But if you played it repeatedly, maybe you'd see the crowd "chase" forward around Z/100 at some rate... and maybe it'd be interesting if time, in the game, were continuous instead of discrete, and it was up to you to actively change your current guess in real-time reaction to other people changing theirs.
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  • (no subject)

    Some further progress cleaning up the https://xkcd.com/1360/ -esque augean stables that is my hard drive. Tomato chicken I made a couple days ago…

  • (no subject)

    Did some personal archaeology. Helped a little with laundry. Threw some chicken, onions, tomato, stock, peppers in the slow cooker and hopefully…

  • (no subject)

    Dinner with akiva and dannel at nuevo portal in carroll gardens. Ate a pile of chicken stew and rice and beans and maduros, good times. I do miss…