Jason (jcreed) wrote,

Woo ~5σ evidence of a Higgs-like particle! That's cool. I keep hearing people say that this means "there's a 99.999whatever% chance that it's really a new particle!", which is just flat-out wrong, though I sympathize, because I used to be really, deeply, face-palmingly confused about posterior probabilities vs. frequentist confidence intervals/p-scores/significance testing etc. too. Like, as recently as 2009, when I totally fucked up a phone interview question about it. Now, however, thanks in part to the differential privacy stuff I worked on at Penn, (the definition of differential privacy has an essentially frequentist idea at its core, and resists bayesian interpretations) I am moderately less confused. I think this xkcd is the best, most punchy explanation I've ever read, but The earth is round (p < 0.05) is a fun read, too.

Went over to Dannel's for some good independence day grillin' times. Played some Johann Sebastian Joust for the first time. I think it's a neat idea and I'm glad it was invented, but for me personally it perfectly combines the things that make me feel like I'm Bad At Sports and Bad At Videogames.
Tags: food, games, physics, social

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